Gameweek 8
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-23 19:00 | IPS vs NFO | 36.3% | 24.6% | 39.1% | 1-1 | ✗ AWAY | analysis → |
| 10-24 11:30 | AVL vs MCI | 27.8% | 23.5% | 48.7% | 2-1 | ✗ AWAY | analysis → |
| 10-24 14:00 | ARS vs EVE | 70.2% | 19.0% | 10.8% | 2-0 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 10-24 14:00 | COV vs FUL | 31.3% | 26.4% | 42.3% | 0-1 | ✓ AWAY | analysis → |
| 10-24 16:30 | CHE vs TOT | 58.7% | 18.9% | 22.4% | 0-2 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 10-25 14:00 | CRY vs NEW | 34.6% | 24.6% | 40.8% | 0-2 | ✓ AWAY | analysis → |
| 10-25 14:00 | HUL vs BRE | 25.5% | 23.2% | 51.3% | 1-1 | ✗ AWAY | analysis → |
| 10-25 14:00 | LIV vs BHA | 45.2% | 24.2% | 30.5% | 2-0 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 10-25 14:00 | MUN vs BOU | 54.9% | 21.6% | 23.4% | 0-3 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 10-25 16:30 | SUN vs LEE | 36.0% | 26.2% | 37.8% | 0-0 | ✗ AWAY | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.