SUN vs LEE
Sunderland (home) vs Leeds United · model confidence 71%
Match Outcome
SUN win 39.5% fair 2.53
Draw 24.6% fair 4.07
LEE win 35.9% fair 2.79
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 38.4% / 24.7% / 36.9%.
Expected Goals
SUN
1.47
—
1.44
LEE
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.7% | fair 1.79 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.3% | fair 2.26 |
| Both teams to score | 58.8% | fair 1.70 |
Most Likely Scores
| SUN 1-1 LEE | 11.5% | |
| SUN 2-1 LEE | 8.5% | |
| SUN 1-2 LEE | 8.3% | |
| SUN 1-0 LEE | 8.0% | |
| SUN 0-1 LEE | 7.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.8 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.5 | 8.3 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.5 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: SUN goals · Columns: LEE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).