HUL vs BRE
Hull City (home) vs Brentford · model confidence 67%
Match Outcome
HUL win 29.2% fair 3.42
Draw 23.4% fair 4.27
BRE win 47.4% fair 2.11
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 25.4% / 23.3% / 51.3%.
Expected Goals
HUL
1.19
—
1.79
BRE
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.1% | fair 1.75 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.9% | fair 2.33 |
| Both teams to score | 57.9% | fair 1.73 |
Most Likely Scores
| HUL 1-1 BRE | 10.8% | |
| HUL 1-2 BRE | 9.7% | |
| HUL 0-1 BRE | 9.1% | |
| HUL 0-2 BRE | 8.1% | |
| HUL 2-1 BRE | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 9.1 | 8.1 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.8 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.5 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: HUL goals · Columns: BRE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).