CHE vs TOT
Chelsea (home) vs Tottenham Hotspur · model confidence 76%
Match Outcome
CHE win 55.6% fair 1.80
Draw 20.4% fair 4.90
TOT win 24.0% fair 4.16
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 57.3% / 19.8% / 22.9%.
Expected Goals
CHE
2.27
—
1.39
TOT
| Over 2.5 goals | 70.9% | fair 1.41 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 29.1% | fair 3.44 |
| Both teams to score | 67.4% | fair 1.48 |
Most Likely Scores
| CHE 2-1 TOT | 9.2% | |
| CHE 1-1 TOT | 8.1% | |
| CHE 3-1 TOT | 7.0% | |
| CHE 2-0 TOT | 6.6% | |
| CHE 2-2 TOT | 6.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 8.1 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.2 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 7.0 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 2.0 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Rows: CHE goals · Columns: TOT goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).