CHE vs TOT
Chelsea (home) vs Tottenham Hotspur · model confidence 80% · pregame locked (10-24 · FT 0-2 ) · lineup adj ×1.10 / ×1.10
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
CHE win 58.7% fair 1.70
Draw 18.9% fair 5.28
TOT win 22.4% fair 4.47
Expected Goals
CHE
2.54
—
1.48
TOT
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): CHE ×1.100 (matched 9), TOT ×1.100 (matched 11). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 76.5% | fair 1.31 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 23.5% | fair 4.25 |
| Both teams to score | 71.2% | fair 1.40 |
Most Likely Scores
| CHE 2-1 TOT | 8.6% | |
| CHE 3-1 TOT | 7.2% | |
| CHE 1-1 TOT | 6.7% | |
| CHE 2-2 TOT | 6.4% | |
| CHE 2-0 TOT | 5.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 6.7 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.6 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 7.2 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 4.6 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 2.6 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
Rows: CHE goals · Columns: TOT goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).