MUN vs BOU
Manchester United (home) vs AFC Bournemouth · model confidence 74%
Match Outcome
MUN win 47.0% fair 2.13
Draw 23.0% fair 4.36
BOU win 30.0% fair 3.33
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 47.4% / 22.8% / 29.8%.
Expected Goals
MUN
1.83
—
1.41
BOU
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.8% | fair 1.59 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37.2% | fair 2.69 |
| Both teams to score | 63.4% | fair 1.58 |
Most Likely Scores
| MUN 1-1 BOU | 10.1% | |
| MUN 2-1 BOU | 9.2% | |
| MUN 1-0 BOU | 7.2% | |
| MUN 1-2 BOU | 7.1% | |
| MUN 2-0 BOU | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.5 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 10.1 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.2 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.6 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: MUN goals · Columns: BOU goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).