AVL vs MCI
Aston Villa (home) vs Manchester City · model confidence 83%
Match Outcome
AVL win 28.7% fair 3.48
Draw 21.8% fair 4.59
MCI win 49.5% fair 2.02
Expected Goals
AVL
1.41
—
2.02
MCI
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.6% | fair 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 33.4% | fair 2.99 |
| Both teams to score | 65.6% | fair 1.52 |
Most Likely Scores
| AVL 1-2 MCI | 9.3% | |
| AVL 1-1 MCI | 9.2% | |
| AVL 0-2 MCI | 6.6% | |
| AVL 2-2 MCI | 6.6% | |
| AVL 0-1 MCI | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 6.5 | 6.6 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 9.2 | 9.3 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.9 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 6.5 | 6.6 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: AVL goals · Columns: MCI goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).