AVL vs MCI
Aston Villa (home) vs Manchester City · model confidence 85% · pregame locked (10-24 · FT 2-1 ) · lineup adj ×0.90 / ×0.90
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
AVL win 27.8% fair 3.60
Draw 23.5% fair 4.26
MCI win 48.7% fair 2.05
Expected Goals
AVL
1.21
—
1.76
MCI
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): AVL ×0.900 (matched 9), MCI ×0.900 (matched 9). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.9% | fair 1.76 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.1% | fair 2.32 |
| Both teams to score | 58.0% | fair 1.72 |
Most Likely Scores
| AVL 1-1 MCI | 10.9% | |
| AVL 1-2 MCI | 9.6% | |
| AVL 0-1 MCI | 9.1% | |
| AVL 0-2 MCI | 8.0% | |
| AVL 2-1 MCI | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 9.1 | 8.0 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.9 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.6 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: AVL goals · Columns: MCI goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).