CRY vs NEW
Crystal Palace (home) vs Newcastle United · model confidence 83% · pregame locked (10-25 · FT 0-2 ) · lineup adj ×0.90 / ×0.99
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
CRY win 34.6% fair 2.89
Draw 24.6% fair 4.07
NEW win 40.8% fair 2.45
Expected Goals
CRY
1.36
—
1.54
NEW
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): CRY ×0.900 (matched 11), NEW ×0.990 (matched 11). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.4% | fair 1.80 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.6% | fair 2.24 |
| Both teams to score | 58.4% | fair 1.71 |
Most Likely Scores
| CRY 1-1 NEW | 11.5% | |
| CRY 1-2 NEW | 8.9% | |
| CRY 0-1 NEW | 8.5% | |
| CRY 2-1 NEW | 7.8% | |
| CRY 1-0 NEW | 7.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 8.5 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.5 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.8 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: CRY goals · Columns: NEW goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).