ARS vs EVE
Arsenal (home) vs Everton · model confidence 85% · pregame locked (10-24 · FT 2-0 ) · lineup adj ×1.04 / ×0.90
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
ARS win 70.2% fair 1.42
Draw 19.0% fair 5.25
EVE win 10.8% fair 9.30
Expected Goals
ARS
2.04
—
0.55
EVE
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): ARS ×1.040 (matched 9), EVE ×0.900 (matched 11). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.0% | fair 2.09 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 52.0% | fair 1.92 |
| Both teams to score | 36.8% | fair 2.71 |
Most Likely Scores
| ARS 2-0 EVE | 15.6% | |
| ARS 1-0 EVE | 15.3% | |
| ARS 3-0 EVE | 10.6% | |
| ARS 2-1 EVE | 8.6% | |
| ARS 1-1 EVE | 8.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 15.3 | 8.4 | 2.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 15.6 | 8.6 | 2.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 10.6 | 5.8 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: ARS goals · Columns: EVE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).