EDGERATING
Methodology

ARS vs EVE

Arsenal (home) vs Everton · model confidence 83%

Match Outcome

ARS win 70.3% fair 1.42
Draw 18.1% fair 5.53
EVE win 11.6% fair 8.63

Expected Goals

ARS 2.21 0.65 EVE
Over 2.5 goals54.4%fair 1.84
Under 2.5 goals45.6%fair 2.19
Both teams to score42.4%fair 2.36

Most Likely Scores

ARS 2-0 EVE14.0%
ARS 1-0 EVE12.7%
ARS 3-0 EVE10.3%
ARS 2-1 EVE9.1%
ARS 1-1 EVE8.2%

Scoreline Matrix

012345+
0 5.8 3.7 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0
1 12.7 8.2 2.7 0.6 0.1 0.0
2 14.0 9.1 2.9 0.6 0.1 0.0
3 10.3 6.7 2.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
4 5.7 3.7 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0
5+ 3.8 2.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0

Rows: ARS goals · Columns: EVE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).

Try Another Matchup

vs