COV vs FUL
Coventry City (home) vs Fulham · model confidence 67%
Match Outcome
COV win 30.8% fair 3.25
Draw 23.5% fair 4.25
FUL win 45.7% fair 2.19
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 27.3% / 23.4% / 49.2%.
Expected Goals
COV
1.25
—
1.76
FUL
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.9% | fair 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.1% | fair 2.38 |
| Both teams to score | 59.1% | fair 1.69 |
Most Likely Scores
| COV 1-1 FUL | 10.9% | |
| COV 1-2 FUL | 9.5% | |
| COV 0-1 FUL | 8.7% | |
| COV 0-2 FUL | 7.6% | |
| COV 2-1 FUL | 6.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 8.7 | 7.6 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.9 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.8 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: COV goals · Columns: FUL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).