Gameweek 7
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-17 11:30 | EVE vs CHE | 27.5% | 23.4% | 49.1% | 0-2 | ✓ AWAY | analysis → |
| 10-17 14:00 | BRE vs LIV | 29.4% | 23.3% | 47.3% | 1-2 | ✓ AWAY | analysis → |
| 10-17 14:00 | FUL vs HUL | 49.6% | 25.3% | 25.1% | 1-0 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 10-17 14:00 | MCI vs IPS | 75.2% | 13.7% | 11.1% | 3-2 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 10-17 16:30 | NEW vs AVL | 48.3% | 23.4% | 28.3% | 0-1 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 10-18 13:00 | BOU vs SUN | 50.0% | 23.7% | 26.3% | 2-0 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 10-18 13:00 | BHA vs CRY | 55.2% | 22.2% | 22.5% | 5-0 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 10-18 13:00 | LEE vs MUN | 34.9% | 24.5% | 40.7% | 1-1 | ✗ AWAY | analysis → |
| 10-18 15:30 | NFO vs ARS | 19.1% | 22.5% | 58.4% | 0-1 | ✓ AWAY | analysis → |
| 10-19 19:00 | TOT vs COV | 57.5% | 22.2% | 20.4% | 3-1 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.