Gameweek 6
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-10 11:30 | ARS vs LEE | 73.2% | 15.9% | 10.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 10-10 14:00 | AVL vs BRE | 47.9% | 22.8% | 29.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 10-10 14:00 | CHE vs BOU | 57.0% | 20.7% | 22.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 10-10 14:00 | IPS vs FUL | 34.4% | 24.2% | 41.4% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 10-10 14:00 | SUN vs BHA | 30.6% | 23.0% | 46.4% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 10-10 16:30 | MUN vs TOT | 45.4% | 22.4% | 32.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 10-11 13:00 | CRY vs NFO | 46.0% | 26.0% | 27.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 10-11 13:00 | HUL vs EVE | 31.8% | 25.6% | 42.7% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 10-11 15:30 | LIV vs MCI | 45.0% | 23.0% | 32.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 10-12 19:00 | COV vs NEW | 22.4% | 20.4% | 57.2% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" links use current ratings, so for played matches they may differ slightly from the pregame numbers shown here.