Gameweek 6
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-10 11:30 | ARS vs LEE | 69.3% | 18.7% | 12.0% | 2-1 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 10-10 14:00 | AVL vs BRE | 39.7% | 24.3% | 36.0% | 2-2 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 10-10 14:00 | CHE vs BOU | 57.6% | 20.7% | 21.7% | 5-1 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 10-10 14:00 | IPS vs FUL | 39.4% | 24.8% | 35.9% | 2-1 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 10-10 14:00 | SUN vs BHA | 27.9% | 22.4% | 49.7% | 0-2 | ✓ AWAY | analysis → |
| 10-10 16:30 | MUN vs TOT | 54.5% | 21.3% | 24.2% | 1-1 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 10-11 13:00 | CRY vs NFO | 38.3% | 26.9% | 34.8% | 3-1 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 10-11 13:00 | HUL vs EVE | 35.7% | 27.9% | 36.4% | 2-2 | ✗ AWAY | analysis → |
| 10-11 15:30 | LIV vs MCI | 38.3% | 24.7% | 37.0% | 0-3 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 10-12 19:00 | COV vs NEW | 21.6% | 21.8% | 56.6% | 4-1 | ✗ AWAY | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.