COV vs NEW
Coventry City (home) vs Newcastle United · model confidence 68%
Match Outcome
COV win 22.4% fair 4.47
Draw 20.4% fair 4.89
NEW win 57.2% fair 1.75
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 17.2% / 19.6% / 63.2%.
Expected Goals
COV
1.06
—
2.19
NEW
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.1% | fair 1.59 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36.9% | fair 2.71 |
| Both teams to score | 57.9% | fair 1.73 |
Most Likely Scores
| COV 1-2 NEW | 9.9% | |
| COV 0-2 NEW | 9.3% | |
| COV 1-1 NEW | 9.0% | |
| COV 0-1 NEW | 8.5% | |
| COV 1-3 NEW | 7.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 8.5 | 9.3 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 2.5 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 9.0 | 9.9 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 2.6 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 4.7 | 5.2 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 1.4 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: COV goals · Columns: NEW goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).