CHE vs BOU
Chelsea (home) vs AFC Bournemouth · model confidence 78%
Match Outcome
CHE win 57.0% fair 1.76
Draw 20.7% fair 4.83
BOU win 22.3% fair 4.47
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 58.8% / 20.2% / 21.0%.
Expected Goals
CHE
2.18
—
1.24
BOU
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.6% | fair 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 33.4% | fair 2.99 |
| Both teams to score | 63.2% | fair 1.58 |
Most Likely Scores
| CHE 2-1 BOU | 9.6% | |
| CHE 1-1 BOU | 8.8% | |
| CHE 2-0 BOU | 7.7% | |
| CHE 1-0 BOU | 7.1% | |
| CHE 3-1 BOU | 7.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 8.8 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.6 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 7.0 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: CHE goals · Columns: BOU goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).