CHE vs BOU
Chelsea (home) vs AFC Bournemouth · model confidence 80% · pregame locked (10-10 · FT 5-1 ) · lineup adj ×1.01 / ×0.90
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
CHE win 57.6% fair 1.74
Draw 20.7% fair 4.84
BOU win 21.7% fair 4.61
Expected Goals
CHE
2.17
—
1.21
BOU
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): CHE ×1.015 (matched 10), BOU ×0.900 (matched 11). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.6% | fair 1.52 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 34.4% | fair 2.91 |
| Both teams to score | 62.1% | fair 1.61 |
Most Likely Scores
| CHE 2-1 BOU | 9.7% | |
| CHE 1-1 BOU | 8.9% | |
| CHE 2-0 BOU | 8.0% | |
| CHE 1-0 BOU | 7.4% | |
| CHE 3-1 BOU | 7.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 8.9 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 7.0 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: CHE goals · Columns: BOU goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).