Gameweek 5
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-18 19:00 | BRE vs CHE | 34.9% | 23.3% | 41.7% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 09-19 11:30 | TOT vs AVL | 42.9% | 22.2% | 34.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 09-19 14:00 | BHA vs ARS | 23.0% | 22.5% | 54.5% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 09-19 14:00 | EVE vs IPS | 52.1% | 23.8% | 24.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 09-19 14:00 | LEE vs CRY | 37.3% | 25.3% | 37.3% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 09-19 14:00 | MCI vs SUN | 71.9% | 15.6% | 12.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 09-19 14:00 | NEW vs HUL | 67.8% | 17.6% | 14.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 09-19 16:30 | NFO vs COV | 56.2% | 22.7% | 21.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 09-20 13:00 | BOU vs LIV | 26.3% | 21.7% | 52.1% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 09-20 15:30 | FUL vs MUN | 40.9% | 24.0% | 35.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" links use current ratings, so for played matches they may differ slightly from the pregame numbers shown here.