Gameweek 5
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-18 19:00 | BRE vs CHE | 35.5% | 21.9% | 42.6% | 3-0 | ✗ AWAY | analysis → |
| 09-19 11:30 | TOT vs AVL | 41.2% | 25.0% | 33.7% | 2-3 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 09-19 14:00 | BHA vs ARS | 22.9% | 21.3% | 55.8% | 3-0 | ✗ AWAY | analysis → |
| 09-19 14:00 | EVE vs IPS | 48.1% | 24.6% | 27.4% | 1-0 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 09-19 14:00 | NEW vs HUL | 64.7% | 19.7% | 15.6% | 2-1 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 09-19 16:30 | NFO vs COV | 64.0% | 20.3% | 15.7% | 0-1 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 09-20 13:00 | BOU vs LIV | 27.4% | 23.8% | 48.7% | 0-1 | ✓ AWAY | analysis → |
| 09-20 13:00 | LEE vs CRY | 42.1% | 25.6% | 32.3% | 0-0 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 09-20 13:00 | MCI vs SUN | 71.5% | 16.5% | 12.0% | 5-3 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 09-20 15:30 | FUL vs MUN | 33.7% | 24.0% | 42.4% | 1-1 | ✗ AWAY | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.