BRE vs CHE
Brentford (home) vs Chelsea · model confidence 79%
Match Outcome
BRE win 34.9% fair 2.86
Draw 23.3% fair 4.29
CHE win 41.7% fair 2.40
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 33.5% / 23.2% / 43.2%.
Expected Goals
BRE
1.49
—
1.72
CHE
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.3% | fair 1.61 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37.7% | fair 2.65 |
| Both teams to score | 63.7% | fair 1.57 |
Most Likely Scores
| BRE 1-1 CHE | 10.3% | |
| BRE 1-2 CHE | 8.9% | |
| BRE 2-1 CHE | 7.7% | |
| BRE 0-1 CHE | 6.9% | |
| BRE 2-2 CHE | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 6.9 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.3 | 8.9 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.7 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: BRE goals · Columns: CHE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).