BRE vs CHE
Brentford (home) vs Chelsea · model confidence 81% · pregame locked (09-18 · FT 3-0 ) · lineup adj ×1.10 / ×1.10
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
BRE win 35.5% fair 2.81
Draw 21.9% fair 4.57
CHE win 42.6% fair 2.35
Expected Goals
BRE
1.70
—
1.95
CHE
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): BRE ×1.096 (matched 10), CHE ×1.100 (matched 10). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 70.6% | fair 1.42 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 29.4% | fair 3.40 |
| Both teams to score | 70.1% | fair 1.43 |
Most Likely Scores
| BRE 1-1 CHE | 8.6% | |
| BRE 1-2 CHE | 8.4% | |
| BRE 2-1 CHE | 7.3% | |
| BRE 2-2 CHE | 7.1% | |
| BRE 1-3 CHE | 5.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 8.6 | 8.4 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 7.3 | 7.1 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Rows: BRE goals · Columns: CHE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).