MCI vs SUN
Manchester City (home) vs Sunderland · model confidence 80% · pregame locked (09-20 · FT 5-3 ) · lineup adj ×0.99 / ×0.94
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
MCI win 71.5% fair 1.40
Draw 16.5% fair 6.05
SUN win 12.0% fair 8.35
Expected Goals
MCI
2.49
—
0.77
SUN
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): MCI ×0.991 (matched 9), SUN ×0.940 (matched 10). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.3% | fair 1.58 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36.7% | fair 2.72 |
| Both teams to score | 49.2% | fair 2.03 |
Most Likely Scores
| MCI 2-0 SUN | 11.9% | |
| MCI 3-0 SUN | 9.9% | |
| MCI 1-0 SUN | 9.6% | |
| MCI 2-1 SUN | 9.1% | |
| MCI 3-1 SUN | 7.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11.9 | 9.1 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9.9 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 6.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 5.0 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: MCI goals · Columns: SUN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).