MCI vs SUN
Manchester City (home) vs Sunderland · model confidence 78%
Match Outcome
MCI win 71.9% fair 1.39
Draw 15.6% fair 6.39
SUN win 12.4% fair 8.06
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 76.0% / 14.4% / 9.6%.
Expected Goals
MCI
2.73
—
0.89
SUN
| Over 2.5 goals | 69.9% | fair 1.43 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 30.1% | fair 3.33 |
| Both teams to score | 54.9% | fair 1.82 |
Most Likely Scores
| MCI 2-0 SUN | 10.0% | |
| MCI 3-0 SUN | 9.1% | |
| MCI 2-1 SUN | 8.9% | |
| MCI 3-1 SUN | 8.1% | |
| MCI 1-0 SUN | 7.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 8.9 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 9.1 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 6.2 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 5.8 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: MCI goals · Columns: SUN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).