BHA vs ARS
Brighton & Hove Albion (home) vs Arsenal · model confidence 83%
Match Outcome
BHA win 23.0% fair 4.35
Draw 22.5% fair 4.45
ARS win 54.5% fair 1.83
Expected Goals
BHA
1.04
—
1.88
ARS
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.9% | fair 1.79 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.1% | fair 2.27 |
| Both teams to score | 54.8% | fair 1.82 |
Most Likely Scores
| BHA 1-1 ARS | 10.5% | |
| BHA 0-1 ARS | 10.1% | |
| BHA 1-2 ARS | 9.9% | |
| BHA 0-2 ARS | 9.5% | |
| BHA 1-3 ARS | 6.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 10.1 | 9.5 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.5 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: BHA goals · Columns: ARS goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).