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EPL · 2026-27 Serie A · 2026-27 La Liga · 2026-27 Bundesliga · 2026-27 Ligue 1 · 2026-27

BHA vs ARS

Brighton & Hove Albion (home) vs Arsenal · model confidence 83%

Match Outcome

BHA win 23.0% fair 4.35
Draw 22.5% fair 4.45
ARS win 54.5% fair 1.83

Expected Goals

BHA 1.04 1.88 ARS
Over 2.5 goals55.9%fair 1.79
Under 2.5 goals44.1%fair 2.27
Both teams to score54.8%fair 1.82

Most Likely Scores

BHA 1-1 ARS10.5%
BHA 0-1 ARS10.1%
BHA 1-2 ARS9.9%
BHA 0-2 ARS9.5%
BHA 1-3 ARS6.2%

Scoreline Matrix

012345+
0 5.4 10.1 9.5 6.0 2.8 1.5
1 5.6 10.5 9.9 6.2 2.9 1.6
2 2.9 5.5 5.2 3.2 1.5 0.8
3 1.0 1.9 1.8 1.1 0.5 0.3
4 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1
5+ 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0

Rows: BHA goals · Columns: ARS goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).

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