BHA vs ARS
Brighton & Hove Albion (home) vs Arsenal · model confidence 84% · pregame locked (09-19 · FT 3-0 ) · lineup adj ×1.06 / ×1.10
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
BHA win 22.9% fair 4.37
Draw 21.3% fair 4.69
ARS win 55.8% fair 1.79
Expected Goals
BHA
1.14
—
2.05
ARS
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): BHA ×1.063 (matched 11), ARS ×1.100 (matched 9). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.9% | fair 1.62 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.1% | fair 2.62 |
| Both teams to score | 59.4% | fair 1.68 |
Most Likely Scores
| BHA 1-2 ARS | 9.9% | |
| BHA 1-1 ARS | 9.6% | |
| BHA 0-2 ARS | 8.6% | |
| BHA 0-1 ARS | 8.4% | |
| BHA 1-3 ARS | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 8.4 | 8.6 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.8 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 2.1 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: BHA goals · Columns: ARS goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).