NEW vs HUL
Newcastle United (home) vs Hull City · model confidence 68%
Match Outcome
NEW win 67.8% fair 1.48
Draw 17.6% fair 5.68
HUL win 14.6% fair 6.84
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 73.0% / 16.1% / 10.8%.
Expected Goals
NEW
2.49
—
0.86
HUL
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.0% | fair 1.54 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35.0% | fair 2.85 |
| Both teams to score | 52.7% | fair 1.90 |
Most Likely Scores
| NEW 2-0 HUL | 10.9% | |
| NEW 2-1 HUL | 9.3% | |
| NEW 3-0 HUL | 9.1% | |
| NEW 1-0 HUL | 8.8% | |
| NEW 3-1 HUL | 7.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.3 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9.1 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 5.6 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 4.6 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: NEW goals · Columns: HUL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).