TOT vs AVL
Tottenham Hotspur (home) vs Aston Villa · model confidence 76%
Match Outcome
TOT win 42.9% fair 2.33
Draw 22.2% fair 4.50
AVL win 34.8% fair 2.87
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 42.6% / 22.0% / 35.4%.
Expected Goals
TOT
1.87
—
1.70
AVL
| Over 2.5 goals | 69.2% | fair 1.45 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 30.8% | fair 3.24 |
| Both teams to score | 69.1% | fair 1.45 |
Most Likely Scores
| TOT 1-1 AVL | 9.0% | |
| TOT 2-1 AVL | 8.4% | |
| TOT 1-2 AVL | 7.6% | |
| TOT 2-2 AVL | 7.1% | |
| TOT 1-0 AVL | 5.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 9.0 | 7.6 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.4 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 5.2 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Rows: TOT goals · Columns: AVL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).