EVE vs IPS
Everton (home) vs Ipswich Town · model confidence 67%
Match Outcome
EVE win 52.1% fair 1.92
Draw 23.8% fair 4.20
IPS win 24.0% fair 4.16
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 53.9% / 23.8% / 22.4%.
Expected Goals
EVE
1.73
—
1.02
IPS
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.9% | fair 1.93 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.1% | fair 2.08 |
| Both teams to score | 52.7% | fair 1.90 |
Most Likely Scores
| EVE 1-1 IPS | 11.3% | |
| EVE 1-0 IPS | 11.0% | |
| EVE 2-1 IPS | 9.8% | |
| EVE 2-0 IPS | 9.5% | |
| EVE 0-1 IPS | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 11.3 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.8 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: EVE goals · Columns: IPS goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).