NFO vs COV
Nottingham Forest (home) vs Coventry City · model confidence 66%
Match Outcome
NFO win 56.2% fair 1.78
Draw 22.7% fair 4.40
COV win 21.1% fair 4.74
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 59.0% / 22.4% / 18.6%.
Expected Goals
NFO
1.86
—
0.94
COV
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.0% | fair 1.89 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.0% | fair 2.13 |
| Both teams to score | 51.3% | fair 1.95 |
Most Likely Scores
| NFO 1-0 COV | 11.4% | |
| NFO 1-1 COV | 10.6% | |
| NFO 2-0 COV | 10.5% | |
| NFO 2-1 COV | 9.9% | |
| NFO 3-0 COV | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 10.6 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: NFO goals · Columns: COV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).