FUL vs MUN
Fulham (home) vs Manchester United · model confidence 75%
Match Outcome
FUL win 40.9% fair 2.45
Draw 24.0% fair 4.16
MUN win 35.1% fair 2.85
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 40.2% / 24.1% / 35.8%.
Expected Goals
FUL
1.57
—
1.47
MUN
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.7% | fair 1.70 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.3% | fair 2.42 |
| Both teams to score | 61.1% | fair 1.64 |
Most Likely Scores
| FUL 1-1 MUN | 11.0% | |
| FUL 2-1 MUN | 8.7% | |
| FUL 1-2 MUN | 8.1% | |
| FUL 1-0 MUN | 7.5% | |
| FUL 0-1 MUN | 7.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 7.0 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.0 | 8.1 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.7 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.5 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: FUL goals · Columns: MUN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).