BOU vs LIV
AFC Bournemouth (home) vs Liverpool · model confidence 82% · pregame locked (09-20 · FT 0-1 ) · lineup adj ×0.90 / ×0.90
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
BOU win 27.4% fair 3.65
Draw 23.8% fair 4.20
LIV win 48.7% fair 2.05
Expected Goals
BOU
1.14
—
1.72
LIV
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): BOU ×0.900 (matched 11), LIV ×0.900 (matched 11). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.6% | fair 1.83 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.4% | fair 2.20 |
| Both teams to score | 56.0% | fair 1.79 |
Most Likely Scores
| BOU 1-1 LIV | 11.2% | |
| BOU 0-1 LIV | 9.8% | |
| BOU 1-2 LIV | 9.7% | |
| BOU 0-2 LIV | 8.4% | |
| BOU 1-0 LIV | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 9.8 | 8.4 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.2 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.4 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: BOU goals · Columns: LIV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).