Gameweek 4
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-12 14:00 | BOU vs BRE | 43.1% | 23.3% | 33.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 09-12 14:00 | AVL vs NFO | 49.7% | 24.0% | 26.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 09-12 14:00 | CHE vs HUL | 68.7% | 17.1% | 14.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 09-12 14:00 | CRY vs IPS | 56.5% | 22.3% | 21.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 09-12 14:00 | LIV vs FUL | 65.4% | 18.5% | 16.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 09-12 16:30 | TOT vs EVE | 48.6% | 23.2% | 28.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 09-12 19:00 | SUN vs ARS | 15.1% | 18.4% | 66.5% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 09-13 13:00 | COV vs BHA | 25.5% | 21.4% | 53.1% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 09-13 15:30 | MUN vs MCI | 28.5% | 22.3% | 49.2% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 09-14 19:00 | LEE vs NEW | 30.5% | 23.4% | 46.1% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" links use current ratings, so for played matches they may differ slightly from the pregame numbers shown here.