Gameweek 4
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-12 14:00 | BOU vs BRE | 37.8% | 23.7% | 38.4% | 2-2 | ✗ AWAY | analysis → |
| 09-12 14:00 | AVL vs NFO | 41.9% | 26.1% | 32.0% | 1-2 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 09-12 14:00 | CHE vs HUL | 71.3% | 15.8% | 12.9% | 2-2 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 09-12 14:00 | CRY vs IPS | 52.7% | 22.8% | 24.5% | 2-3 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 09-12 14:00 | LIV vs FUL | 64.6% | 19.7% | 15.7% | 0-0 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 09-12 16:30 | TOT vs EVE | 45.7% | 25.3% | 29.0% | 0-0 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 09-12 19:00 | SUN vs ARS | 13.4% | 17.8% | 68.8% | 0-2 | ✓ AWAY | analysis → |
| 09-13 13:00 | COV vs BHA | 23.9% | 21.1% | 55.0% | 0-5 | ✓ AWAY | analysis → |
| 09-13 15:30 | MUN vs MCI | 32.4% | 22.2% | 45.4% | 0-1 | ✓ AWAY | analysis → |
| 09-14 19:00 | LEE vs NEW | 29.3% | 24.5% | 46.2% | 4-1 | ✗ AWAY | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.