Gameweek 3
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-04 19:00 | IPS vs LIV | 22.6% | 20.3% | 57.1% | 0-2 | ✓ AWAY | analysis → |
| 09-05 11:30 | NEW vs BOU | 57.4% | 21.7% | 21.0% | 2-2 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 09-05 14:00 | BRE vs SUN | 59.1% | 21.0% | 19.9% | 1-1 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 09-05 14:00 | BHA vs LEE | 59.2% | 20.3% | 20.5% | 1-1 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 09-05 14:00 | FUL vs CRY | 40.0% | 26.6% | 33.4% | 2-3 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 09-05 14:00 | MCI vs COV | 76.5% | 13.5% | 10.0% | 1-0 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 09-05 14:00 | NFO vs TOT | 42.4% | 24.1% | 33.5% | 0-0 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 09-05 16:30 | HUL vs AVL | 30.7% | 24.4% | 44.9% | 0-0 | ✗ AWAY | analysis → |
| 09-06 13:00 | EVE vs MUN | 33.3% | 24.7% | 42.0% | 2-2 | ✗ AWAY | analysis → |
| 09-06 15:30 | ARS vs CHE | 62.3% | 19.7% | 18.1% | 2-1 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.