Gameweek 3
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-04 19:00 | IPS vs LIV | 19.5% | 19.1% | 61.4% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 09-05 11:30 | NEW vs BOU | 55.9% | 21.2% | 23.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 09-05 14:00 | BRE vs SUN | 54.8% | 22.0% | 23.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 09-05 14:00 | BHA vs LEE | 54.7% | 21.8% | 23.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 09-05 14:00 | FUL vs CRY | 40.0% | 25.2% | 34.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 09-05 14:00 | MCI vs COV | 76.4% | 13.2% | 10.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 09-05 14:00 | NFO vs TOT | 40.4% | 24.1% | 35.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 09-05 16:30 | HUL vs AVL | 26.9% | 22.5% | 50.6% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 09-06 13:00 | EVE vs MUN | 39.4% | 25.3% | 35.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 09-06 15:30 | ARS vs CHE | 61.3% | 20.9% | 17.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" links use current ratings, so for played matches they may differ slightly from the pregame numbers shown here.