NEW vs BOU
Newcastle United (home) vs AFC Bournemouth · model confidence 78%
Match Outcome
NEW win 55.9% fair 1.79
Draw 21.2% fair 4.73
BOU win 23.0% fair 4.35
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 57.5% / 20.7% / 21.8%.
Expected Goals
NEW
2.11
—
1.24
BOU
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.1% | fair 1.54 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 34.9% | fair 2.86 |
| Both teams to score | 62.4% | fair 1.60 |
Most Likely Scores
| NEW 2-1 BOU | 9.7% | |
| NEW 1-1 BOU | 9.2% | |
| NEW 2-0 BOU | 7.8% | |
| NEW 1-0 BOU | 7.4% | |
| NEW 3-1 BOU | 6.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 9.2 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.8 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: NEW goals · Columns: BOU goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).