NFO vs TOT
Nottingham Forest (home) vs Tottenham Hotspur · model confidence 75% · pregame locked (09-05 · FT 0-0 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
NFO win 42.4% fair 2.36
Draw 24.1% fair 4.15
TOT win 33.5% fair 2.98
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 41.9% / 24.1% / 34.0%.
Expected Goals
NFO
1.60
—
1.42
TOT
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.0% | fair 1.72 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.0% | fair 2.38 |
| Both teams to score | 60.4% | fair 1.65 |
Most Likely Scores
| NFO 1-1 TOT | 11.1% | |
| NFO 2-1 TOT | 8.9% | |
| NFO 1-2 TOT | 7.9% | |
| NFO 1-0 TOT | 7.8% | |
| NFO 0-1 TOT | 6.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.9 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.1 | 7.9 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.9 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.7 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: NFO goals · Columns: TOT goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).