NFO vs TOT
Nottingham Forest (home) vs Tottenham Hotspur · model confidence 74%
Match Outcome
NFO win 40.4% fair 2.47
Draw 24.1% fair 4.14
TOT win 35.4% fair 2.82
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 39.6% / 24.2% / 36.2%.
Expected Goals
NFO
1.55
—
1.48
TOT
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.3% | fair 1.72 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.7% | fair 2.40 |
| Both teams to score | 60.8% | fair 1.64 |
Most Likely Scores
| NFO 1-1 TOT | 11.1% | |
| NFO 2-1 TOT | 8.6% | |
| NFO 1-2 TOT | 8.2% | |
| NFO 1-0 TOT | 7.5% | |
| NFO 0-1 TOT | 7.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 7.1 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.1 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.6 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: NFO goals · Columns: TOT goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).