BHA vs LEE
Brighton & Hove Albion (home) vs Leeds United · model confidence 74%
Match Outcome
BHA win 54.7% fair 1.83
Draw 21.8% fair 4.60
LEE win 23.5% fair 4.25
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 56.4% / 21.4% / 22.2%.
Expected Goals
BHA
2.02
—
1.20
LEE
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.5% | fair 1.60 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37.5% | fair 2.67 |
| Both teams to score | 60.6% | fair 1.65 |
Most Likely Scores
| BHA 2-1 LEE | 9.8% | |
| BHA 1-1 LEE | 9.7% | |
| BHA 2-0 LEE | 8.2% | |
| BHA 1-0 LEE | 8.1% | |
| BHA 3-1 LEE | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.6 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: BHA goals · Columns: LEE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).