FUL vs CRY
Fulham (home) vs Crystal Palace · model confidence 80% · pregame locked (09-05 · FT 2-3 ) · lineup adj ×0.90 / ×0.90
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
FUL win 40.0% fair 2.50
Draw 26.6% fair 3.76
CRY win 33.4% fair 2.99
Expected Goals
FUL
1.31
—
1.19
CRY
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): FUL ×0.900 (matched 11), CRY ×0.900 (matched 11). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.8% | fair 2.18 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 54.2% | fair 1.84 |
| Both teams to score | 50.9% | fair 1.96 |
Most Likely Scores
| FUL 1-1 CRY | 12.8% | |
| FUL 1-0 CRY | 10.7% | |
| FUL 0-1 CRY | 9.7% | |
| FUL 2-1 CRY | 8.4% | |
| FUL 0-0 CRY | 8.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.8 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: FUL goals · Columns: CRY goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).