FUL vs CRY
Fulham (home) vs Crystal Palace · model confidence 79%
Match Outcome
FUL win 40.0% fair 2.50
Draw 25.2% fair 3.97
CRY win 34.8% fair 2.87
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 39.3% / 25.4% / 35.3%.
Expected Goals
FUL
1.43
—
1.35
CRY
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.6% | fair 1.90 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.4% | fair 2.11 |
| Both teams to score | 56.4% | fair 1.77 |
Most Likely Scores
| FUL 1-1 CRY | 12.0% | |
| FUL 1-0 CRY | 8.9% | |
| FUL 2-1 CRY | 8.6% | |
| FUL 0-1 CRY | 8.3% | |
| FUL 1-2 CRY | 8.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 8.3 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.0 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.6 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: FUL goals · Columns: CRY goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).