EVE vs MUN
Everton (home) vs Manchester United · model confidence 75%
Match Outcome
EVE win 39.4% fair 2.54
Draw 25.3% fair 3.95
MUN win 35.3% fair 2.83
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 38.4% / 25.6% / 36.0%.
Expected Goals
EVE
1.40
—
1.35
MUN
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.8% | fair 1.93 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.2% | fair 2.07 |
| Both teams to score | 55.7% | fair 1.79 |
Most Likely Scores
| EVE 1-1 MUN | 12.1% | |
| EVE 1-0 MUN | 9.0% | |
| EVE 0-1 MUN | 8.6% | |
| EVE 2-1 MUN | 8.5% | |
| EVE 1-2 MUN | 8.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 8.6 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.1 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.5 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: EVE goals · Columns: MUN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).