BRE vs SUN
Brentford (home) vs Sunderland · model confidence 74%
Match Outcome
BRE win 54.8% fair 1.83
Draw 22.0% fair 4.54
SUN win 23.2% fair 4.31
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 56.5% / 21.7% / 21.8%.
Expected Goals
BRE
1.98
—
1.15
SUN
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.6% | fair 1.65 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.4% | fair 2.54 |
| Both teams to score | 59.0% | fair 1.70 |
Most Likely Scores
| BRE 1-1 SUN | 10.0% | |
| BRE 2-1 SUN | 9.9% | |
| BRE 1-0 SUN | 8.6% | |
| BRE 2-0 SUN | 8.5% | |
| BRE 3-1 SUN | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 10.0 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.9 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.5 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: BRE goals · Columns: SUN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).