MCI vs COV
Manchester City (home) vs Coventry City · model confidence 71%
Match Outcome
MCI win 76.4% fair 1.31
Draw 13.2% fair 7.59
COV win 10.4% fair 9.57
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 83.0% / 10.9% / 6.1%.
Expected Goals
MCI
3.12
—
0.78
COV
| Over 2.5 goals | 74.8% | fair 1.34 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 25.2% | fair 3.96 |
| Both teams to score | 51.9% | fair 1.93 |
Most Likely Scores
| MCI 3-0 COV | 10.2% | |
| MCI 2-0 COV | 9.8% | |
| MCI 3-1 COV | 8.0% | |
| MCI 4-0 COV | 8.0% | |
| MCI 2-1 COV | 7.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 10.2 | 8.0 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 8.0 | 6.2 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 9.4 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: MCI goals · Columns: COV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).