Gameweek 2
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-28 19:00 | CRY vs MCI | 28.1% | 23.4% | 48.5% | 1-4 | ✓ AWAY | analysis → |
| 08-29 11:30 | LIV vs NFO | 63.6% | 20.1% | 16.3% | 2-2 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 08-29 14:00 | BOU vs EVE | 45.6% | 24.4% | 29.9% | 1-1 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 08-29 14:00 | COV vs HUL | 43.1% | 24.7% | 32.2% | 0-1 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 08-29 16:30 | TOT vs NEW | 36.7% | 22.5% | 40.8% | 0-2 | ✓ AWAY | analysis → |
| 08-30 13:00 | CHE vs BHA | 50.8% | 22.1% | 27.2% | 4-3 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 08-30 13:00 | LEE vs BRE | 38.5% | 24.1% | 37.3% | 1-1 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 08-30 13:00 | SUN vs FUL | 36.7% | 24.4% | 38.9% | 1-0 | ✗ AWAY | analysis → |
| 08-30 15:30 | MUN vs IPS | 57.5% | 21.2% | 21.3% | 5-2 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 08-31 19:00 | AVL vs ARS | 22.0% | 22.2% | 55.8% | 0-1 | ✓ AWAY | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.