BOU vs EVE
AFC Bournemouth (home) vs Everton · model confidence 77%
Match Outcome
BOU win 45.6% fair 2.19
Draw 24.4% fair 4.09
EVE win 29.9% fair 3.34
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 45.7% / 24.5% / 29.8%.
Expected Goals
BOU
1.61
—
1.25
EVE
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.6% | fair 1.83 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.4% | fair 2.20 |
| Both teams to score | 57.2% | fair 1.75 |
Most Likely Scores
| BOU 1-1 EVE | 11.5% | |
| BOU 2-1 EVE | 9.3% | |
| BOU 1-0 EVE | 9.2% | |
| BOU 2-0 EVE | 7.4% | |
| BOU 1-2 EVE | 7.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.1 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 11.5 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.3 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: BOU goals · Columns: EVE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).