TOT vs NEW
Tottenham Hotspur (home) vs Newcastle United · model confidence 76%
Match Outcome
TOT win 36.7% fair 2.72
Draw 22.5% fair 4.45
NEW win 40.8% fair 2.45
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 35.4% / 22.2% / 42.4%.
Expected Goals
TOT
1.66
—
1.83
NEW
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.8% | fair 1.47 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 32.2% | fair 3.11 |
| Both teams to score | 68.1% | fair 1.47 |
Most Likely Scores
| TOT 1-1 NEW | 9.2% | |
| TOT 1-2 NEW | 8.5% | |
| TOT 2-1 NEW | 7.7% | |
| TOT 2-2 NEW | 7.0% | |
| TOT 0-1 NEW | 5.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 5.6 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 9.2 | 8.5 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.7 | 7.0 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: TOT goals · Columns: NEW goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).