COV vs HUL
Coventry City (home) vs Hull City · model confidence 56% · pregame locked (08-29 · FT 0-1 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
COV win 43.1% fair 2.32
Draw 24.7% fair 4.05
HUL win 32.2% fair 3.10
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is low (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 42.4% / 24.9% / 32.6%.
Expected Goals
COV
1.52
—
1.31
HUL
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.8% | fair 1.86 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.2% | fair 2.17 |
| Both teams to score | 57.1% | fair 1.75 |
Most Likely Scores
| COV 1-1 HUL | 11.7% | |
| COV 1-0 HUL | 9.0% | |
| COV 2-1 HUL | 8.9% | |
| COV 0-1 HUL | 7.7% | |
| COV 1-2 HUL | 7.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 7.7 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.7 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.9 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: COV goals · Columns: HUL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).