AVL vs ARS
Aston Villa (home) vs Arsenal · model confidence 84% · pregame locked (08-31 · FT 0-1 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
AVL win 22.0% fair 4.55
Draw 22.2% fair 4.50
ARS win 55.8% fair 1.79
Expected Goals
AVL
1.01
—
1.91
ARS
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.8% | fair 1.79 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.2% | fair 2.26 |
| Both teams to score | 54.2% | fair 1.85 |
Most Likely Scores
| AVL 1-1 ARS | 10.4% | |
| AVL 0-1 ARS | 10.3% | |
| AVL 1-2 ARS | 9.9% | |
| AVL 0-2 ARS | 9.8% | |
| AVL 1-3 ARS | 6.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 10.3 | 9.8 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: AVL goals · Columns: ARS goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).