CHE vs BHA
Chelsea (home) vs Brighton & Hove Albion · model confidence 79% · pregame locked (08-30 · FT 4-3 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
CHE win 50.8% fair 1.97
Draw 22.1% fair 4.53
BHA win 27.2% fair 3.68
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 51.6% / 21.8% / 26.6%.
Expected Goals
CHE
1.98
—
1.38
BHA
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.2% | fair 1.53 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 34.8% | fair 2.87 |
| Both teams to score | 64.4% | fair 1.55 |
Most Likely Scores
| CHE 1-1 BHA | 9.5% | |
| CHE 2-1 BHA | 9.4% | |
| CHE 1-0 BHA | 6.9% | |
| CHE 2-0 BHA | 6.8% | |
| CHE 1-2 BHA | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 4.8 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 9.5 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.4 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 6.2 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: CHE goals · Columns: BHA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).