Gameweek 1
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-21 19:00 | ARS vs COV | 79.5% | 11.9% | 8.6% | 3-0 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 08-22 11:30 | HUL vs MUN | 26.7% | 22.3% | 51.1% | 2-0 | ✗ AWAY | analysis → |
| 08-22 14:00 | EVE vs CRY | 36.2% | 26.4% | 37.4% | 2-0 | ✗ AWAY | analysis → |
| 08-22 14:00 | IPS vs SUN | 40.1% | 24.6% | 35.3% | 2-1 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 08-22 14:00 | NFO vs LEE | 47.5% | 24.6% | 28.0% | 0-1 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 08-22 16:30 | BRE vs TOT | 40.8% | 22.4% | 36.7% | 3-0 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 08-23 13:00 | BHA vs AVL | 40.7% | 23.3% | 36.0% | 4-0 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 08-23 13:00 | MCI vs BOU | 66.0% | 17.7% | 16.3% | 2-1 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 08-23 15:30 | NEW vs LIV | 35.3% | 23.8% | 40.9% | 2-2 | ✗ AWAY | analysis → |
| 08-24 19:00 | FUL vs CHE | 33.0% | 24.0% | 43.1% | 2-3 | ✓ AWAY | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" links use current ratings, so for played matches they may differ slightly from the pregame numbers shown here.