NFO vs LEE
Nottingham Forest (home) vs Leeds United · model confidence 72% · pregame locked (08-22 · FT 0-1 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
NFO win 47.5% fair 2.11
Draw 24.6% fair 4.07
LEE win 28.0% fair 3.58
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 48.0% / 24.7% / 27.4%.
Expected Goals
NFO
1.61
—
1.16
LEE
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.4% | fair 1.91 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.6% | fair 2.10 |
| Both teams to score | 54.9% | fair 1.82 |
Most Likely Scores
| NFO 1-1 LEE | 11.7% | |
| NFO 1-0 LEE | 10.1% | |
| NFO 2-1 LEE | 9.4% | |
| NFO 2-0 LEE | 8.1% | |
| NFO 0-1 LEE | 7.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 7.2 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 11.7 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.4 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: NFO goals · Columns: LEE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).