NFO vs LEE
Nottingham Forest (home) vs Leeds United · model confidence 73%
Match Outcome
NFO win 45.3% fair 2.21
Draw 25.4% fair 3.94
LEE win 29.4% fair 3.40
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 45.3% / 25.6% / 29.1%.
Expected Goals
NFO
1.50
—
1.15
LEE
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.4% | fair 2.02 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.6% | fair 1.98 |
| Both teams to score | 53.1% | fair 1.88 |
Most Likely Scores
| NFO 1-1 LEE | 12.2% | |
| NFO 1-0 LEE | 10.6% | |
| NFO 2-1 LEE | 9.1% | |
| NFO 0-1 LEE | 8.1% | |
| NFO 2-0 LEE | 8.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 8.1 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.2 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.1 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: NFO goals · Columns: LEE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).