BRE vs TOT
Brentford (home) vs Tottenham Hotspur · model confidence 75%
Match Outcome
BRE win 44.9% fair 2.23
Draw 22.3% fair 4.48
TOT win 32.8% fair 3.05
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 44.8% / 22.1% / 33.1%.
Expected Goals
BRE
1.89
—
1.61
TOT
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.9% | fair 1.47 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 32.1% | fair 3.11 |
| Both teams to score | 67.9% | fair 1.47 |
Most Likely Scores
| BRE 1-1 TOT | 9.2% | |
| BRE 2-1 TOT | 8.7% | |
| BRE 1-2 TOT | 7.4% | |
| BRE 2-2 TOT | 7.0% | |
| BRE 1-0 TOT | 5.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 4.9 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 9.2 | 7.4 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.7 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.5 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: BRE goals · Columns: TOT goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).