BRE vs TOT
Brentford (home) vs Tottenham Hotspur · model confidence 75% · pregame locked (08-22 · FT 3-0 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
BRE win 40.8% fair 2.45
Draw 22.4% fair 4.46
TOT win 36.7% fair 2.72
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 40.1% / 22.2% / 37.7%.
Expected Goals
BRE
1.79
—
1.74
TOT
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.4% | fair 1.46 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 31.6% | fair 3.17 |
| Both teams to score | 68.7% | fair 1.46 |
Most Likely Scores
| BRE 1-1 TOT | 9.1% | |
| BRE 2-1 TOT | 8.2% | |
| BRE 1-2 TOT | 7.9% | |
| BRE 2-2 TOT | 7.1% | |
| BRE 1-0 TOT | 5.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 9.1 | 7.9 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 8.2 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: BRE goals · Columns: TOT goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).