IPS vs SUN
Ipswich Town (home) vs Sunderland · model confidence 63%
Match Outcome
IPS win 41.2% fair 2.43
Draw 24.5% fair 4.08
SUN win 34.3% fair 2.91
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is low (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 40.1% / 24.7% / 35.2%.
Expected Goals
IPS
1.51
—
1.40
SUN
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.7% | fair 1.80 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.3% | fair 2.26 |
| Both teams to score | 58.7% | fair 1.70 |
Most Likely Scores
| IPS 1-1 SUN | 11.5% | |
| IPS 2-1 SUN | 8.7% | |
| IPS 1-0 SUN | 8.2% | |
| IPS 1-2 SUN | 8.1% | |
| IPS 0-1 SUN | 7.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.6 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.5 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.7 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.4 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: IPS goals · Columns: SUN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).