IPS vs SUN
Ipswich Town (home) vs Sunderland · model confidence 62% · pregame locked (08-22 · FT 2-1 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
IPS win 40.1% fair 2.49
Draw 24.6% fair 4.07
SUN win 35.3% fair 2.83
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is low (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 38.7% / 24.7% / 36.6%.
Expected Goals
IPS
1.48
—
1.43
SUN
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.5% | fair 1.80 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.5% | fair 2.25 |
| Both teams to score | 58.6% | fair 1.71 |
Most Likely Scores
| IPS 1-1 SUN | 11.6% | |
| IPS 2-1 SUN | 8.5% | |
| IPS 1-2 SUN | 8.3% | |
| IPS 1-0 SUN | 8.1% | |
| IPS 0-1 SUN | 7.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.8 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.6 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.5 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: IPS goals · Columns: SUN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).