EVE vs CRY
Everton (home) vs Crystal Palace · model confidence 79% · pregame locked (08-22 · FT 2-0 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
EVE win 36.2% fair 2.76
Draw 26.4% fair 3.79
CRY win 37.4% fair 2.67
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 34.9% / 26.7% / 38.4%.
Expected Goals
EVE
1.23
—
1.31
CRY
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.6% | fair 2.15 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53.4% | fair 1.87 |
| Both teams to score | 51.6% | fair 1.94 |
Most Likely Scores
| EVE 1-1 CRY | 12.7% | |
| EVE 0-1 CRY | 10.3% | |
| EVE 1-0 CRY | 9.7% | |
| EVE 1-2 CRY | 8.3% | |
| EVE 0-0 CRY | 7.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 10.3 | 6.7 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.7 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.8 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: EVE goals · Columns: CRY goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).