EVE vs CRY
Everton (home) vs Crystal Palace · model confidence 79%
Match Outcome
EVE win 38.5% fair 2.60
Draw 26.6% fair 3.76
CRY win 34.9% fair 2.86
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 37.6% / 27.0% / 35.5%.
Expected Goals
EVE
1.28
—
1.23
CRY
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.8% | fair 2.18 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 54.2% | fair 1.84 |
| Both teams to score | 51.0% | fair 1.96 |
Most Likely Scores
| EVE 1-1 CRY | 12.8% | |
| EVE 1-0 CRY | 10.4% | |
| EVE 0-1 CRY | 10.0% | |
| EVE 2-1 CRY | 8.2% | |
| EVE 0-0 CRY | 8.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 10.0 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.8 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.2 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: EVE goals · Columns: CRY goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).