NEW vs LIV
Newcastle United (home) vs Liverpool · model confidence 82% · pregame locked (08-23 · FT 2-2 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
NEW win 35.3% fair 2.83
Draw 23.8% fair 4.20
LIV win 40.9% fair 2.45
Expected Goals
NEW
1.45
—
1.63
LIV
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.6% | fair 1.68 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.4% | fair 2.48 |
| Both teams to score | 61.7% | fair 1.62 |
Most Likely Scores
| NEW 1-1 LIV | 10.8% | |
| NEW 1-2 LIV | 8.9% | |
| NEW 2-1 LIV | 7.9% | |
| NEW 0-1 LIV | 7.5% | |
| NEW 1-0 LIV | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 7.5 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 10.8 | 8.9 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.9 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: NEW goals · Columns: LIV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).