NEW vs LIV
Newcastle United (home) vs Liverpool · model confidence 82%
Match Outcome
NEW win 35.6% fair 2.81
Draw 23.6% fair 4.24
LIV win 40.8% fair 2.45
Expected Goals
NEW
1.49
—
1.66
LIV
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.0% | fair 1.64 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.0% | fair 2.56 |
| Both teams to score | 62.8% | fair 1.59 |
Most Likely Scores
| NEW 1-1 LIV | 10.6% | |
| NEW 1-2 LIV | 8.8% | |
| NEW 2-1 LIV | 7.9% | |
| NEW 0-1 LIV | 7.1% | |
| NEW 2-2 LIV | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 7.1 | 5.9 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.6 | 8.8 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.9 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: NEW goals · Columns: LIV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).