ARS vs COV
Arsenal (home) vs Coventry City · model confidence 71% · pregame locked (08-21 · FT 3-0 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
ARS win 79.5% fair 1.26
Draw 11.9% fair 8.44
COV win 8.6% fair 11.63
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 86.7% / 9.3% / 4.0%.
Expected Goals
ARS
3.12
—
0.57
COV
| Over 2.5 goals | 71.4% | fair 1.40 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 28.6% | fair 3.49 |
| Both teams to score | 41.6% | fair 2.40 |
Most Likely Scores
| ARS 3-0 COV | 12.6% | |
| ARS 2-0 COV | 12.1% | |
| ARS 4-0 COV | 9.9% | |
| ARS 1-0 COV | 7.8% | |
| ARS 3-1 COV | 7.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 12.1 | 6.9 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 12.6 | 7.2 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 9.9 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 11.6 | 6.6 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ARS goals · Columns: COV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).