ARS vs COV
Arsenal (home) vs Coventry City · model confidence 72%
Match Outcome
ARS win 79.9% fair 1.25
Draw 11.8% fair 8.50
COV win 8.4% fair 11.96
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 86.8% / 9.3% / 3.9%.
Expected Goals
ARS
3.11
—
0.56
COV
| Over 2.5 goals | 70.8% | fair 1.41 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 29.2% | fair 3.43 |
| Both teams to score | 40.8% | fair 2.45 |
Most Likely Scores
| ARS 3-0 COV | 12.8% | |
| ARS 2-0 COV | 12.4% | |
| ARS 4-0 COV | 9.9% | |
| ARS 1-0 COV | 8.0% | |
| ARS 3-1 COV | 7.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 12.4 | 6.9 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 12.8 | 7.1 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 11.6 | 6.5 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: ARS goals · Columns: COV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).