FUL vs CHE
Fulham (home) vs Chelsea · model confidence 79% · pregame locked (08-24 · FT 2-3 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
FUL win 33.0% fair 3.03
Draw 24.0% fair 4.17
CHE win 43.1% fair 2.32
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 31.2% / 23.9% / 44.8%.
Expected Goals
FUL
1.35
—
1.66
CHE
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.9% | fair 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.1% | fair 2.37 |
| Both teams to score | 60.0% | fair 1.67 |
Most Likely Scores
| FUL 1-1 CHE | 11.1% | |
| FUL 1-2 CHE | 9.2% | |
| FUL 0-1 CHE | 8.2% | |
| FUL 2-1 CHE | 7.5% | |
| FUL 0-2 CHE | 6.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 8.2 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.1 | 9.2 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.5 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: FUL goals · Columns: CHE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).