FUL vs CHE
Fulham (home) vs Chelsea · model confidence 79%
Match Outcome
FUL win 32.2% fair 3.11
Draw 23.3% fair 4.29
CHE win 44.5% fair 2.25
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 30.4% / 23.2% / 46.4%.
Expected Goals
FUL
1.39
—
1.76
CHE
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.0% | fair 1.64 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.0% | fair 2.56 |
| Both teams to score | 62.2% | fair 1.61 |
Most Likely Scores
| FUL 1-1 CHE | 10.5% | |
| FUL 1-2 CHE | 9.2% | |
| FUL 0-1 CHE | 7.5% | |
| FUL 2-1 CHE | 7.3% | |
| FUL 0-2 CHE | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 7.5 | 6.6 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.5 | 9.2 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.3 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: FUL goals · Columns: CHE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).