HUL vs MUN
Hull City (home) vs Manchester United · model confidence 63% · pregame locked (08-22 · FT 2-0 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
HUL win 26.7% fair 3.75
Draw 22.3% fair 4.49
MUN win 51.1% fair 1.96
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is low (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 21.5% / 21.8% / 56.7%.
Expected Goals
HUL
1.13
—
1.96
MUN
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.5% | fair 1.68 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.5% | fair 2.47 |
| Both teams to score | 58.0% | fair 1.72 |
Most Likely Scores
| HUL 1-1 MUN | 10.1% | |
| HUL 1-2 MUN | 9.9% | |
| HUL 0-1 MUN | 9.0% | |
| HUL 0-2 MUN | 8.8% | |
| HUL 1-3 MUN | 6.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 9.0 | 8.8 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: HUL goals · Columns: MUN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).