HUL vs MUN
Hull City (home) vs Manchester United · model confidence 64%
Match Outcome
HUL win 29.1% fair 3.44
Draw 23.4% fair 4.28
MUN win 47.5% fair 2.10
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is low (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 24.9% / 23.2% / 51.9%.
Expected Goals
HUL
1.17
—
1.79
MUN
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.9% | fair 1.76 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.1% | fair 2.32 |
| Both teams to score | 57.5% | fair 1.74 |
Most Likely Scores
| HUL 1-1 MUN | 10.8% | |
| HUL 1-2 MUN | 9.7% | |
| HUL 0-1 MUN | 9.3% | |
| HUL 0-2 MUN | 8.3% | |
| HUL 2-1 MUN | 6.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 9.3 | 8.3 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.8 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.3 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: HUL goals · Columns: MUN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).