BHA vs AVL
Brighton & Hove Albion (home) vs Aston Villa · model confidence 79%
Match Outcome
BHA win 46.3% fair 2.16
Draw 22.7% fair 4.40
AVL win 31.0% fair 3.23
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 46.5% / 22.5% / 31.0%.
Expected Goals
BHA
1.85
—
1.48
AVL
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.6% | fair 1.55 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35.4% | fair 2.82 |
| Both teams to score | 65.0% | fair 1.54 |
Most Likely Scores
| BHA 1-1 AVL | 9.8% | |
| BHA 2-1 AVL | 9.1% | |
| BHA 1-2 AVL | 7.3% | |
| BHA 2-2 AVL | 6.7% | |
| BHA 1-0 AVL | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 5.3 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 9.8 | 7.3 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 9.1 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.6 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: BHA goals · Columns: AVL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).