BHA vs AVL
Brighton & Hove Albion (home) vs Aston Villa · model confidence 79% · pregame locked (08-23 · FT 4-0 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
BHA win 40.7% fair 2.46
Draw 23.3% fair 4.29
AVL win 36.0% fair 2.77
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 40.0% / 23.2% / 36.8%.
Expected Goals
BHA
1.66
—
1.59
AVL
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.0% | fair 1.59 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37.0% | fair 2.71 |
| Both teams to score | 64.5% | fair 1.55 |
Most Likely Scores
| BHA 1-1 AVL | 10.2% | |
| BHA 2-1 AVL | 8.5% | |
| BHA 1-2 AVL | 8.1% | |
| BHA 2-2 AVL | 6.8% | |
| BHA 1-0 AVL | 6.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 6.2 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.2 | 8.1 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.5 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: BHA goals · Columns: AVL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).