MCI vs BOU
Manchester City (home) vs AFC Bournemouth · model confidence 80% · pregame locked (08-23 · FT 2-1 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
MCI win 66.0% fair 1.51
Draw 17.7% fair 5.66
BOU win 16.3% fair 6.13
Expected Goals
MCI
2.57
—
1.11
BOU
| Over 2.5 goals | 71.1% | fair 1.41 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 28.9% | fair 3.46 |
| Both teams to score | 61.8% | fair 1.62 |
Most Likely Scores
| MCI 2-1 BOU | 9.2% | |
| MCI 2-0 BOU | 8.4% | |
| MCI 3-1 BOU | 7.9% | |
| MCI 1-1 BOU | 7.2% | |
| MCI 3-0 BOU | 7.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.2 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.2 | 7.9 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.6 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 3.9 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: MCI goals · Columns: BOU goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).