MCI vs BOU
Manchester City (home) vs AFC Bournemouth · model confidence 80%
Match Outcome
MCI win 65.2% fair 1.53
Draw 18.0% fair 5.54
BOU win 16.7% fair 5.99
Expected Goals
MCI
2.50
—
1.10
BOU
| Over 2.5 goals | 69.8% | fair 1.43 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 30.2% | fair 3.32 |
| Both teams to score | 61.3% | fair 1.63 |
Most Likely Scores
| MCI 2-1 BOU | 9.4% | |
| MCI 2-0 BOU | 8.5% | |
| MCI 3-1 BOU | 7.8% | |
| MCI 1-1 BOU | 7.5% | |
| MCI 3-0 BOU | 7.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 7.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.1 | 7.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.5 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 3.6 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: MCI goals · Columns: BOU goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).