LIV vs NFO
Liverpool (home) vs Nottingham Forest · model confidence 80%
Match Outcome
LIV win 63.6% fair 1.57
Draw 20.1% fair 4.98
NFO win 16.3% fair 6.13
Expected Goals
LIV
2.12
—
0.88
NFO
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.7% | fair 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.3% | fair 2.36 |
| Both teams to score | 51.4% | fair 1.95 |
Most Likely Scores
| LIV 2-0 NFO | 11.2% | |
| LIV 1-0 NFO | 10.6% | |
| LIV 2-1 NFO | 9.8% | |
| LIV 1-1 NFO | 9.3% | |
| LIV 3-0 NFO | 8.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 9.3 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.0 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: LIV goals · Columns: NFO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).